Volta

Evaluating the theoretical performance of aircraft wastewater monitoring as a tool for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance

Air travel plays an important role in the cross-border spread of infectious diseases. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic many countries introduced strict border testing protocols to monitor the incursion of the virus. However, high implementation costs and significant inconvenience to passengers have led public health authorities to consider alternative methods of disease surveillance at borders. Aircraft wastewater monitoring has been proposed as one such alternative. In this paper we assess the theoretical limits of aircraft wastewater monitoring and compare its performance to post-arrival border screening approaches. Using an infectious disease model, we simulate an unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic originating in a seed country and spreading to the United Kingdom (UK) through daily flights. We use a probabilistic approach to estimate the time …

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