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Border control strategies for reducing importation risk of Clade Ib Mpox

Abstract Background The Clade Ib monkeypox virus (MPXV), newly identified in the ongoing 2024 mpox outbreak, can be more transmissible through non-sexual routes compared to the previous Clade IIb strain. With imported cases sporadically reported globally, concerns have emerged about the potential of widespread transmission in the general community after importation events. Border control measures, such as screening and quarantining of arriving travellers, may help mitigate this risk and prevent localized outbreaks in the event of global spread. Methods We proposed nine border control strategies and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing importation risk using 10,000 microsimulations of individual infection profiles and PCR testing results under scenarios with varying disease prevalence levels (0.01%, 0.05%, and 0.1%) in the country of origin. …

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