Volta

Evaluating harvest risk with limited data: A case study on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in East Greenland

Unknown authors · 2026
hash_id: 7b702547ad0a6355fb65683838eef888a1b7efa44d07b2b8dc45388eb94b34e8 · DOI: 10.1111/csp2.70353

Abstract Evaluating the impact of human‐caused removals on wildlife is challenging, especially when population data are limited, future monitoring is uncertain, and habitat conditions are changing. The East Greenland (EG) polar bear subpopulation contains 2275 animals (95% CI = 1360–3807) and is a subsistence resource for Indigenous Peoples. We developed a state‐dependent modeling and management framework to evaluate different harvest strategies for EG bears. Our approach considered sea‐ice loss and followed international consensus principles for the sustainable harvest of polar bears. Over the next 34 years (approximately three polar bear generations) and assuming a 2:1 male‐to‐female harvest sex ratio, the starting sustainable harvest ranged from 63 bears/year in the absence of scientific monitoring, to 93 bears/year if updated demographic parameters …

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