Volta

A Simple Algorithm to Predict Incident Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), there are no algorithms (to our knowledge) to quantify the effect of concurrent risk factors on the development of incident disease. METHODS: A combined cohort (N = 14 155) of 2 community-based studies, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Cardiovascular Health Study, was formed among men and women 45 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) exceeding 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline. The primary outcome was the development of a GFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) during a follow-up period of up to 9 years. Three prediction algorithms derived from the development data set were evaluated in the validation data set. RESULTS: The 3 prediction …

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