Volta

Modelling environmental transmission of bovine tuberculosis between cattle and badgers; impact of interventions and spatial heterogeneity

Outline of the thesisThe thesis is organized into five chapters, beginning with this introductory chapter (Chapter 1).Subsequently, three research chapters (Chapters 2-4) are dedicated to addressing individual sub-objectives.The thesis concludes with a comprehensive general discussion (Chapter 5).Chapter 2: A novel method to quantify environmental transmissionQuantifying environmental transmission without environmental data is challenging [53].The commonly-used trajectory-fitting method might not be able to simultaneously estimate back decay rate and transmission rate parameters, especially for endemic diseases like bTB.To solve this issue, Chapter 2 develops a novel statistical method to estimate transmission rate and decay rate parameters simultaneously using only infection data.We simulate a simple SIS model with environmental transmission and use the simulated data to validate this estimation method.We also compare this …

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