Volta

Investigating the potential benefit that requiring travellers to self-isolate on arrival may have upon the reducing of case importations during international outbreaks of influenza, SARS, Ebola virus disease and COVID-19

Abstract With the advent of rapid international travel, disease can now spread between nations faster than ever. As such, when outbreaks occur in foreign states, pressure mounts to reduce the risk of importing cases to the home nation. In a previous paper, we developed a model to investigate the potential effectiveness of deploying screening at airports during outbreaks of influenza, SARS, and Ebola. We also applied the model to the current COVID-19 outbreak. This model simulated the testing of travellers (assumed not to be displaying symptoms prior to boarding their flight) as they arrived at their destination. The model showed that the reduction in risk of case importation that screening alone could deliver was minimal across most scenarios considered, with …

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