Volta

A multi-scale model to evaluate airport wastewater surveillance and ICU genomic monitoring for pandemic preparedness

Abstract Increasing human mobility and population connectivity have intensified the risks of global pathogen spread, while concurrent shifts in human demographic patterns, ecological factors, and climatic conditions have altered the global landscape of this risk. Genomic surveillance can serve as a critical tool for early detection of emerging pathogen threats; however, challenges remain in deciding where to monitor, in understanding trade-offs among surveillance modalities, and in translating detections into actionable estimates of importation and local transmission for public health decision-making. Here we develop a computational framework to evaluate strategies for respiratory pathogen detection that integrates an established clinical surveillance modality, intensive care unit (ICU) sampling, with an emerging environmental modality, aircraft wastewater (AWW) sampling. Detections are translated into risk via …

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