Volta

Effectiveness of different border control strategies for reducing mpox importation risk: a modelling study

Background: The Clade Ib monkeypox virus can be more transmissible through non-sexual routes compared to the previous Clade IIb strain. With imported cases sporadically reported globally, concerns have emerged about the potential of widespread transmission in the general community after importation events. Border control measures, such as screening and quarantining of arriving travellers, may help mitigate this risk and prevent localised outbreaks in the event of global spread. Methods: We developed an agent-based model to simulate individual disease progression and testing. We then evaluated the effectiveness of nine border control strategies in reducing importation risk. The simulations incorporated varying disease prevalence levels (0.001%, 0.005%, and 0.01%) in the country of origin. Findings: The proposed border-control measures would reduce missed cases …

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