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The bucket and the searchlight: formulating and testing risk hypotheses about the weediness and invasiveness potential of transgenic crops

The bucket and the searchlight are metaphors for opposing theories of the growth of scientific knowledge. The bucket theory proposes that knowledge is gained by observing the world without preconceptions, and that knowledge emerges from the accumulation of observations that support a hypothesis. There are many problems with this theory, the most serious of which is that it does not appear to offer a means to distinguish between the many hypotheses that could explain a particular set of observations. The searchlight theory proposes that preconceptions are unavoidable and that knowledge advances through the improvement of our preconceptions - our hypotheses - by continuous criticism and revision. A hypothesis is a searchlight that illuminates observations that test the hypothesis and reveal …

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