Volta

Assessing the effectiveness of travel control measures in preventing imported COVID-19 cases reveals the critical role of travel volume

BACKGROUND: Although travel control measures have played a key role in mitigating COVID-19 spread in certain regions, few empirical observational studies have specifically quantified their effectiveness in preventing the importation of infectious cases into communities. In Hong Kong, layered policies (e.g., mandatory quarantine, staggered testing protocols, and phased travel volume restriction) provided a natural experiment to disentangle these components. Our study evaluates the contributions of each measure to preventing imported infectious cases releasing to community. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed these measures' effectiveness in Hong Kong, utilizing data from eight countries during 2020-2021. Data on imported COVID-19 cases, including departure origins and time from arrival to report, was compiled. To estimate the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence among inbound travelers, we used a Bayesian …

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